Indian stock market and companies daily report (January 11, 2012, Wednesday)

Indian markets are expected to open in green taking cues from positive opening in most of the Asian markets today and firm closing in most of the global markets on Tuesday. The Indian markets ended higher yesterday on the back of positive global cues and renewed hopes of a CRR cut later this month. A decision by global ratings agency Moody's to upgrade India's rating to investment grade and reports showing an impressive 56% rise in FDI inflows in November helped revive appetite for riskier assets.
Globally, most of the US and European markets closed in green yesterday as a weaker US currency helped drive up the price of oil, other dollar-denominated commodities and resource stocks. Also, an announcement by the rating agency Fitch that a downgrade of the creditworthiness of France from the top credit rating of "AAA" within a year is not expected provided a boost to the market. The markets this week will be closely watching out from IIP numbers and Infosys results which will be released on January 12, 2012.

Markets Today
The trend deciding level for the day is 16,081/4,825 levels. If NIFTY trades above this level during the first half-an-hour of trade then we may witness a further rally up to 16,265–16,364/4,881– 4,912 levels. However, if NIFTY trades below 16,081/4,825 levels for the first half-an-hour of trade then it may correct up to 15,982–15,799/4,793–4,737 levels.

FDI equity inflows up 56% in November 2011 after two slack months
Indicating a positive investor sentiment amidst the ongoing macroeconomic concerns, FDI equity inflows into India increased by 56% to US$2.53bn in November 2011. According to officials, cumulative flows for the April-November period stood at US$22.83bn vs. US$19.43bn for FY2011.
FDI equity inflows for the past two months were sluggish, with September and October reporting a 16.5% yoy and 50% yoy decline in inflows, respectively. During FY2011, equity in India witnessed a sharp 25% dip in FDI, from US$25.6bn in FY2010 to US$19.43bn.
Telecom, IT, construction, power, housing and real estate are the major sectors attracting FDI, and Mauritius, Singapore, U.S., U.K., Netherlands, Japan, Germany and UAE are the major sources of FDI in India. We believe the pick-up in FDI inflows will have a positive impact on INR in the foreign exchange market.

KPIT’s infotainment platform achieves GENIVI compliance
KPIT Cummins (KPIT) has announced that its In-Vehicle Infotainment (IVI) platform is now compliant with GENIVI Compliance Specification Release 1.0. The GENIVI compliance program provides a set of specifications for GENIVI member companies to measure their products and services. Those that meet the specifications may be registered as GENIVI compliant and facilitate OEMs and Tier-1 suppliers to short list compliant offerings and simplify their vendor selection process. Automotive OEMs are aggressively pursuing the adoption of consumer electronics (CE) features in infotainment. KPIT's infotainment platform speeds up this process by leveraging the critical mass of open source community, which enables broader coverage and faster support of new CE technologies. This platform features automotive grade robustness, leverages scale to reduce total cost of ownership and is supported by a mature service delivery organization to speed up development of product variants across feature sets and geographies. The platform contains core services and frameworks to enable faster, contextaware human machine interface and application development. It is optimized for the latest ARM-based application processors from multiple silicon vendors as well as for the Intel Atom processor. We maintain our Accumulate recommendation on the stock with a target price of Rs.163.

Economic and Political News
- Government clears 20 FDI proposals worth Rs.1,935cr
- Indirect tax kitty up 16.1% in Apr-Dec
- Moody’s upgraded India’s short-term country ceiling on foreign currency
bank deposits, in addition to the three upgrades on December 20 last year
- Petroleum Ministry asked to follow IMO fuel emission norms

Corporate News
- MTNL to float Rs.200 cr tender for network expansion
- PSL Ltd wins Rs 280-cr order from Pratibha Ind
- TVS to introduce three products in 2012
- Wockhardt launches generic nasal spray for Rhinitis

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Indian stock market and companies daily report (January 09, 2011, Monday)

Indian markets are expected to open in red taking cues from gap down opening in most of the Asian markets and negative closing in most of the global markets on Friday. The Indian markets ended flat to modestly high on Friday, reversing early declines, as European stocks rose and expectations of an interest rate cut this month heightened.
Globally, most of the US and European markets closed lower on Friday traders shrugged off another upbeat U.S. employment report amid continued concerns about the ongoing European debt crisis, stocks turned in a lackluster performance during trading. Selling pressure in global markets was also generated by news that Fitch Ratings downgraded Hungary to junk status. Adding to the concerns, ECB said overnight deposits by European commercial banks reached a new record high of EUR455.3bn. The markets this week be closely watching out from IIP numbers and Infosys results which will be released on January 12, 2012. Infosys result is expected to set tone for the upcoming result season.

Markets Today
The trend deciding level for the day is 15,861 / 4,750 levels. If NIFTY trades above this level during the first half-an-hour of trade then we may witness a further rally up to 15,888 – 15,926 / 4,757– 4,766 levels. However, if NIFTY trades below 15,861 / 4,750 levels for the first half-an-hour of trade then it may correct up to 15,823 – 15,796 / 4,740 – 4,733 levels.

NTPC gets back three de-allocated coal blocks
The Coal Ministry has given back three coal blocks to NTPC Ltd. The ministry had taken back these blocks last year as the company had failed to develop them within the stipulated period. All the blocks have been given back on the condition that they would be developed within two years, failing which they would be again taken back by the Coal Ministry. At the CMP, the stock is trading at P/BV of 1.6x its FY2013 estimates. We maintain our Buy recommendation on the stock with a target price of `200.

Idea challenges fresh liquidated damages imposed for two circles
Idea Cellular has approached telecom tribunal TDSAT against the government’s move to impose additional liquidated damages on it for not meeting roll-out obligations in two circles – Haryana and Maharashtra. The contention of the telco is that when the main penalty for these two circles has already been set aside by the tribunal, there is no point in imposing the additional penalty. The main penalty had been set aside on December 5. The counsel appearing for Idea also said that DoT has imposed penalty on it without serving a show cause notice, thereby denying it an opportunity to present its case in a proper manner. TDSAT has directed the DoT to file reply on Idea's plea by Wednesday. It has also asked DoT not to take any action against the operator. We maintain our Neutral recommendation on the stock.

Economic and Political News
- 9% growth in 12th Plan a challenge, says Montek Singh
- Proposal for Japanese FDI in DMIC project gets MEA nod
- Fiscal deficit may be more than projected, says Pranab Mukherjee

Corporate News
- Ashok Leyland Stile and Partner unveiled
- After Kingfisher, AI Express, DGCA raps other carriers
- JSPL commissions new unit, capacity rises to 917 MW
- GMR Infra issues debentures worth `250cr to GMR Airports
- Mundra UMPP's first 800MW unit starts production

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Indian stock market and companies daily report (January 06, 2012, Friday)

Indian markets are expected to open range-bound following mixed cues from the global markets. Asian stocks are currently trading down on concerns of European debt crisis which has outweighed forecasted gains in US employment.
Indian shares erased early gains on Thursday, as weak Asian and European cues amid fresh concerns about the state of Europe's banks and lingering worries over potential euro-zone sovereign downgrades overshadowed rising expectations that the domestic central bank will cut interest rates at the upcoming policy review meet on January 24.
The US markets traded lower early in the day but ended in the green following release of some upbeat U.S. employment data. The early weakness on Wall Street was due in large part to a negative reaction to the results of a French bond auction, with the sale of 7.96 billion Euros worth of long-term French bonds drawing a higher yield than a month ago. Investors worldwide would keenly watch out for the US nonfarm payroll data and monthly unemployment rate data due for release today.

Markets Today
The trend deciding level for the day is 15,882/4,753 levels. If NIFTY trades above this level during the first half-an-hour of trade then we may witness a further rally up to 15,955 – 16,053/4,776 – 4,803 levels. However, if NIFTY trades below 15,882/4,753 levels for the first half-an-hour of trade then it may correct up to 15,784 – 15,711/4,727 – 4,704 levels.

Cement Dispatches – December 2011
ACC’s cement dispatches for December 2011 stood at 2.09mn tonnes, up bystrong 8.9% yoy. For CY2011, the company’s dispatches reported 11.4% growth  to 23.58mn tonnes, though on a lower capacity base of the previous year. The company added ~3mtpa of capacity in CY2011, post which its overall capacity stands at ~30mtpa. Decent growth in dispatches reported by ACC and UltraTech in December 2011 hints at higher dispatches to the southern region, as both the companies have a decent exposure to the southern region. We continue to remain Neutral on ACC.

Maruti Suzuki to raise product prices next week
Maruti Suzuki (MSIL) has announced that it is planning to increase its product prices from next week to mitigate the impact of INR depreciation on input costs. While the company has not divulged any details on the quantum of the price increase, media reports indicate that the price hike will be in the range of 2-3%. The recent price hike comes on the back of price increase of Rs.10,000 carried out in November 2011 on all its diesel models.
MSIL, which has a substantial exposure to Yen (direct as well as indirect imports and royalty payment constitute ~27% of net sales), is likely to be severely impacted by the continued appreciation of Yen vs. INR (~12% qoq in 3QFY2012 and ~30% YTDFY2012). While the company has hedged its direct imports for 2HFY2012 for JPY/USD part of the leg at a rate of JPY79/USD, USD/INR part is still unhedged, which will have a negative impact on the company’s profitability in 2HFY2012. Meanwhile, MSIL has unveiled a new vehicle XA Alpha, a concept for compact SUV at the 11th Auto Expo being held at New Delhi. With the launch of the new concept vehicle and unveiling of MPV Ertiga on January 6, MSIL plans to expand its presence in the utility vehicle segment (UV), which is currently dominated by Mahindra and Mahindra.
At the current price of Rs.933, MSIL stock trading at 12.4x FY2013E earnings. We believe the recent correction in the stock price (~20% post 2QFY2012 results) factors in the impact of demand slowdown and labor problems on FY2012E volume growth and concerns regarding the adverse currency movement on  margins. Thus, we continue to maintain our Accumulate rating on the stock with a target price of Rs.1,051.

Economic and Political News (edited)
- Weekly food inflation plunges to negative 3.36%
- Inflation may fall below 7% by March 2012: PM advisory panel
- Interest rates have peaked as inflation slows: RBI
- No threat to cancel license of any airline: DGCA
- Government to reach out to consumer bodies for FDI in retail

Corporate News
- RIL gas output dips below 39mmcmd in the week ended December 25, 2011
- M&M to invest Rs.800cr in Korean arm, SsangYong Motors, to develop products
- M&M to launch SUV Rexton in India in the next six months
- ONGC finds gas reserves off Daman

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Indian stock market and companies daily report (January 05, 2012, Thursday)

Indian markets are expected to open lower following negative cues from the European markets and the Asian markets. Asian stocks are trading in the red after Italy’s biggest bank said it needs to raise more capital, spurring concern that the European debt crisis is worsening.

Indian shares ended a choppy session modestly lower on Wednesday, with key benchmarks indices losing less than half a percent each, as investors took some profits after a two-day rally.

European shares snapped a four-day streak of gains on Wednesday as UniCredit SpA’s plan to sell shares fueled concern that banks need to raise capital to weather the debt crisis. US market traded lower in the first half due to profit taking, with some traders cashing in on Tuesday's strong gains amid lingering concerns about the European debt crisis and the outlook for the global economy. The downward momentum was partly offset by the release of a report from the Commerce Department showing a rebound in new orders for U.S. manufactured goods, leading to US markets ending marginally in the green.

Markets Today

The trend deciding level for the day is 15,903/4,754 levels. If NIFTY trades above this level during the first half-an-hour of trade then we may witness a further rally up to 15,984 - 16,086/4,779 - 4,808 levels. However, if NIFTY trades below 15,903/4,754 levels for the first half-an-hour of trade then it may correct up to 15,802 - 15,721/4,725 - 4,700 levels.

Cement Dispatches – December 2011

UltraTech reported cement dispatches for December 2011, which were up by strong 10.6% yoy to 3.62mn tonnes. However, for 3QFY2012, growth in dispatches has been modest at 5.9%. In December 2011, the company managed to post better growth in dispatches compared to Ambuja Cements' growth, which reported modest growth of 5.7% yoy. We continue to remain Neutral on UltraTech.

KEC International secures orders worth Rs.1,253cr

KEC International (KEC) has bagged orders totaling Rs.1,253cr across various business verticals. In the transmission and distribution space (T&D), the company secured orders worth Rs.976cr. Order intake in MENA region stood at Rs.414cr (Rs.310cr and Rs.104cr worth of orders from Saudi Arabia and Afghanistan, respectively). SAE Towers secured orders worth Rs.154cr. In addition, Rs.350cr worth of orders came from the U.S., Kenya and Philippines. Notably, only one order came from the domestic T&D space (Rs.59cr), thus demonstrating the company’s globally diversified strength. The completion time of all these orders ranges from 12-27 months. In addition to the above, the company bagged orders in the business verticals of water (Rs.123cr), cables (Rs.105cr) and telecom (Rs.49cr). The current order book of the company stands at Rs.9,000cr.

KEC’s globally diversified model has enabled it to gain an edge over its domestic peers in the T&D space. While domestic players have struggled to secure orders amid the slowdown, KEC has consistently maintained its average quarterly run rate of Rs.1,200 since the past several quarters. In addition, new businesses of water, railway and telecom are faring well (pace of new orders is gradually increasing). Hence, given the latent potential of the company and healthy return ratios (25%), the valuations of 4.3x FY2013E EPS (well below its historic PE multiple average of 14.0x) are compelling. We recommend Buy with a target price of Rs.45.

Economic and Political News
- Government defers decision on PSU disinvestment via buyback-
- Finance Ministry rules out floating rates in postal savings
- Global food prices expected to remain high: FAO

Corporate News
- ONGC finds four more potential reserves
- Bosch to invest Rs.3,000cr in India on expanding capacity
- Hero MotoCorp unveils three new products at Auto Expo, New Delhi
- TCS adds 200 clients on its SME platform iON
- Dhanlaxmi Bank raises NRE term deposit rates

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Indian stock market and companies daily report (January 04, 2012, Wednesday)

Indian markets are expected to open in the green following positive cues from the European markets and the Asian markets. Asian stocks trading in the green after U.S. manufacturing increased at the fastest pace in six months. Indian shares rallied on Tuesday as inflation worries seem to be abating and the Reserve Bank of India said it might ease monetary policy to address concerns about economic growth.
The US markets ended in the green as markets benefited from positive reactions to the latest batch of economic data. The early rally on Wall Street was partly due to the release of a report showing a modest rebound in Chinese manufacturing activity in the month of December. A separate report showing a notable drop in German unemployment also generated some buying interest. Stocks saw continued strength following the release of a report from the Institute for Supply Management showing that its index of activity in the U.S. manufacturing sector rose to a six-month high in December.

Markets Today
The trend deciding level for the day is 15,850/4,738 levels. If NIFTY trades above this level during the first half-an-hour of trade then we may witness a further rally up to 16,060 – 16,180/4,800– 4,835 levels. However, if NIFTY trades below 15,850/4,738 levels for the first half-an-hour of trade then it may correct up to 15,730 – 15,520/4,703 – 4,641 levels.

Cement Dispatches – December 2011
Ambuja Cements’ dispatches stood at 1.93mn tonnes for December 2011, up by modest 5.7% yoy on a high base of last year. For CY2011, the company’s dispatches grew marginally by 4.2% to 20.96mn tonnes. During CY2010, the company added 2mtpa of capacity, post which its overall capacity stands at 27mtpa. We continue to remain Neutral on Ambuja Cements.

Reliance Industries gets nod to develop new D6 fields
The government has approved Reliance Industries' US$1.5bn plan to develop the new D6 block, which has the potential to produce additional 10mmscmd gas. RIL and, its partner, BP have four months to start work on the project as the KG D6 block faces adverse weather during the rest of the year. Until further clarity on the anticipated production from the block, we maintain our estimates and maintain our Buy rating on the stock with a target price of Rs.1,006.

HCC bags order worth Rs.289cr
Hindustan Construction Company (HCC) has received a Letter of Acceptance (LOA) for a Rs.289cr contract to construct a bulk water transmission system for  Gujarat Water Infrastructure Limited, a Government of Gujarat Undertaking. The work involves construction of a 57km-long water transmission pipeline between Dhanki and Maliya villages under the Swarnim Gujarat Saurashtra-Kutch, Water Grid Programme. The project will be completed in 12 months. With this order, HCC’s outstanding order book now stands at ~Rs.16,967cr (4.1x FY2011 revenue). We maintain our Neutral view on the stock.

Economic and Political News
- DoT to demand Rs.1,593cr from companies for under-reporting revenue
- Government may okay Rs.300cr for marketing support to MSMEs
- Union Budget to be presented on March 16, 2012
- Companies Bill may be cleared in Budget session: Law Minister

Corporate News
- RIL to fund Network 18’s Eenandu stake buy
- IDFC to raise upto Rs.4,500cr via infra bonds
- Bajaj Auto unveils its first-ever four-wheeler, RE60, in New Delhi
- Suzlon Energy bags order to supply 57 wind turbines in the U.S.

Indian stock market and companies daily report (January 03, 2012, Tuesday)

Indian markets are expected to open in the green following positive cues from the European markets and the Asian markets. Asian stocks rose as manufacturing growth from Australia, China and India added to optimism that the region’s economies will withstand Europe’s unresolved sovereign debt crisis. Indian shares ended a choppy session modestly higher on Monday after the government said it would allow qualified foreign investors direct access to Indian stock markets from January 15. While the manufacturing PMI for India jumped to a six month high of 54.2, cheering investors, slowdown in exports to 3.9% yoy for the month of November restricted major upside movement in domestic equities. European stocks though kicked off the New Year in style on Monday, as the markets open for business rallied on hopes that 2012 will bring an end to the region's sovereign debt crisis. Also, German factory sector contracted less than initially estimated in December which led to further gains for European markets on Monday.

Markets Today
The trend deciding level for the day is 15,473/4,624 levels. If NIFTY trades above this level during the first half-an-hour of trade then we may witness a further rally up to 15,588 – 15,658/4,659 – 4,681 levels. However, if NIFTY trades below 15,473/4,624 levels for the first half-an-hour of trade then it may correct up to 15,403 – 15,288/4,601 – 4,566 levels.

Auto sales update – December 2011
Maruti Suzuki (MSIL)
MSIL registered a 7.1% yoy (flat mom) decline in overall volumes to 92,161 units, led by weak performance in domestic markets. Domestic performance during the month witnessed a 13.4% yoy (6.5% mom) decline to 77,475 units, primarily due to subdued demand for passenger cars. Export volumes, however, overshadowed the weak domestic performance, as it recorded impressive 50.5% yoy (65% mom) growth to 14,686 units. The mini segment registered a decline of 15.6% yoy (flat mom), while the compact segment posted flat yoy (6.8% mom) growth. Production during the month was impacted, as the company’s plants were shut for six days in December on account of annual maintenance.
Hero MotoCorp (HMCL)
HMCL reported in-line growth of 7.8% yoy (0.7% mom) in total volumes to 540,276 units. New product launches and refreshed product ranges continued to support HMCL’s volume momentum across product segments. Management has indicated that it further intends to consolidate the company’s leadership position with new product launches and network expansion.
Bajaj Auto (BJAUT)
BJAUT posted lower-than-expected volumes for December 2011, led by moderate growth in the motorcycle segment. Total volumes recorded modest growth of 10.4% yoy (18.4% mom decline) to 305,690 units, primarily due to weak 8.2% yoy (substantial fall of 20.6% mom) growth in the motorcycle segment. Three-wheelers, on the other hand, sustained their strong momentum, reporting 26.8% yoy (down 1.2% mom) growth. Exports also maintained their growth trajectory, witnessing growth of 25.5% yoy (down 7.4% mom) in December 2011.
TVS Motor (TVSL)
TVSL reported poor numbers for December 2011, as total volumes declined by 0.8% yoy (2.9% mom) to 170,428 units. The weak performance can be attributed to slowdown in TVSL’s motorcycle segment, which declined by 7.7% yoy (9.5% mom). The scooters and mopeds segments also witnessed moderate growth of 7.2% (1.1% mom) and 2% yoy (flat mom), respectively, in December 2011. Three-wheeler volumes during the month fell steeply by 26.5% yoy (6.8% mom) to 2,523 units.

Govt. raises export duty on iron ore; Sesa Goa to be the worst hit
The government has raised export duty on iron ore to ad valorem 30% on lumps and fines, with effect from December 30, 2011, compared to 20% earlier. Iron ore exports from India have already declined by 25.2% to 35.4mn tonnes from April- October 2011 on account of export ban in Karnataka, stringent measures in issuing export permits in Odisha, a sharp decline in international iron ore price and increased export duty. Post the export duty hike, rise in rail freight and the recent iron ore price decline are expected to severely affect iron ore exports from India. Before the export duty hike (as per Federation of Indian Mineral Industries), total iron ore exports during FY2012 were estimated to be 60mn tonnes compared to its previous estimate of 75.0mn tonnes. We now expect iron ore exports to be lower than 60mn tonnes during FY2012.
We do not expect any impact on NMDC’s financials due to hike in export duty, as we do not anticipate any exports of iron ore by NMDC during FY2012 and FY2013. However, we have lowered Sesa Goa’s EBITDA estimates for FY2012 and FY2013 by 8.1% and 9.1% to Rs.3,314cr and Rs.3,712cr, respectively. Also, we believe some of the Karnataka iron ore would now be sold domestically. Nevertheless, we believe the current stock price discounts negatives such as acquisition of a minority stake in the unrelated oil business via acquisition of Cairn India’s stake, increased export duty, higher railway freight and lower volumes from Goa mines. We recommend Buy on the stock with an SOTP-based target price of Rs.195 (Rs.213 earlier).

L&T bags orders worth Rs.2,056cr
Larsen & Toubro's (L&T) construction arm has bagged new projects worth Rs.2,056cr across various categories in December 2011. Of these projects, two orders worth Rs.1,262cr in the water and effluent treatment segment was bagged by the company. In the buildings and factories category, a project worth Rs.388cr was bagged for constructing residential towers. In the rail infrastructure segment, orders aggregating to Rs.406cr have been grabbed from various clients. With these orders, the company’s outstanding order book stands at ~Rs.1,52,609cr (3.5x FY2011 revenue), providing good revenue visibility. This order booking takes the company’s total declared orders to ~Rs.10,420cr in 3QFY2012 against orders worth Rs.13,336cr received in 3QFY2011. The drying up of order inflows is one of the major concerns for the stock and has led to underperformance in the recent past.
At the CMP of Rs.1,009, the stock is trading at PE of 9.7x FY2013E earnings, after adjusting for investments, which is below the historical trading multiple for L&T and we believe factors in most of the negatives surrounding the stock. We have used the SOTP methodology to value the company to capture all its business initiatives and investments/stakes in the different businesses. Ascribing separate values to its parent business on a P/E basis and investments in subsidiaries on P/E, P/BV and mcap basis, our target price works out to Rs.1,453, which provides 44.0% upside from current levels. Hence, we maintain our Buy recommendation on the stock.

IVRCL bags orders worth Rs.732cr
IVRCL has bagged orders aggregating to Rs.732cr across the buildings, transportation, mining, water and solar power divisions. The company’s buildings division has secured orders worth Rs.404.6cr, including those from the Indian Institute of Science Education and Research, Bhopal; Indian Oil Corporation Ltd.; Jindal Steel & Power Ltd.; and National Institute of Biomedical genomics, West Bengal. While the transportation division secured an order worth Rs.251.4cr from Mahanadi Coalfields Ltd., the mining division bagged an order worth Rs.45.4cr from Hindustan Copper Ltd. Further, orders worth Rs.19.4cr and Rs.11.4cr have been bagged for water and solar power projects, respectively. With these orders, IVRCL’s order book stands at ~Rs.26,232cr (4.6x FY2011 revenue).
We have valued IVRCL on an SOTP basis. The company’s core construction business is valued at P/E of 6x FY2013E EPS of 4.6 (Rs.27.8/share), whereas its stake in subsidiaries, IVR Prime (Rs.10.9/share) and Hindustan Dorr-Oliver (Rs.2.9/share), has been valued on mcap basis, post assigning a 30% holding company discount. At the CMP of Rs.29, the stock is trading at 6.3x FY2013E EPS and 0.4x FY2013E P/BV on a standalone basis. Thus, on the back of the company’s robust order book-to-sales ratio (4.6x FY2011 revenue) and attractive valuations, we maintain our Buy view on the stock with a target price of Rs.42.

Economic and Political News
- November exports rise 3.9% to US$22.3bn yoy
- November imports rise 24.5% to US$35.9bn yoy
- No outside control must be imposed on media: PM

Corporate News
- ONGC to invest Rs.15,000cr in KG gas find
- Coal India expects higher revenue to offset wage hikes
- M&M tractor sales for December 2011 rise marginally